2018-2019 Growth Slowdown
Managing Equity Exposure:
July/Aug 2019: Recommended being defensive and reducing equity exposure
Recommended put spread on QQQ (NASDAQ 100 ETF, Dec expiry)
“My base case is for a rounding top right here at this particular moment….. As a matter of fact, I see a possibility of the peak of NASDAQ for the year and potentially for the cycle”
End of Dec, 2018: Recommended adding back equity exposure. QQQ put spread expired at 12x
“Despair is rampant in the Street that Santa Claus is not coming to town this year, while I just heard some remote ringing of Santa’s sleigh - in the end, Santa Claus may come at the right time.”
Emerging Market Equity
Early January, 2019: Recommended emerging market equity.
“Per my note dated on Dec 20th, I have been turning constructive on Emerging Markets Equity. I believes there is a good chance for EEM to rebound from 38 within a short-term horizon (in the next 1-3 weeks) with a decent chance to break above 42 within the next 1-2 months. I will not be surprised for EEM to go to area of 46. I consider today a good time for entry. “
Late April 2019: Recommended taking profits on emerging market equity.
Mid December, 2018: Recommended the downside on the USDJPY (long JPY) via delta-one or USD(put)JPY(call) either as a hedge on risky assets or as alpha source.
“I have been developing thesis for the potential reversal of Japanese Yen to strengthen against USD in the past few months. My signal to sell USD buy JPY was triggered on the early morning of Dec 17th with spot around 113.18. The expectation is for USDJPY to start moving downward, taking out support area around 112 and 110, and form downward trend in days/weeks ahead. This potentially can be morphed into a longer term trend, forming a strengthening cycle of JPY, potentially going lower than 105 and 100. The trade could potentially be stopped out around 115. “
Early January 2019: Recommended taking partial profits, anticipating a potential rebound. 1y USD(call)JPY(put) doubled.
April 2019: Recommended adding back USDJPY downside trades.
Conditional Bull Steepener:
July/August, 2018: Recommended 5s/30s conditional bull steepener
Late April 2019: Recommended 2s/10s conditional bull steepener
Late April 2019: Recommended Upside of JPYKRW (long Japanese Yen and short Korean Won) either as a hedge against risky assets (particularly EM and Chinese economic hard landing) or as alpha source.
Dec 2018: Recommended long gold via either delta-one positions or call options.
“The turn of USD dollar will have broad implication across global asset classes, especially EM and gold. For this matter, I have turned very constructive on gold and gold stocks fundamentally, would seek opportunity to add to long.”
Late April 2019: Recommended adding gold exposure.